Entering every college football season, naturally, the national spotlight shines on the teams with the highest expectations. But while the average college football fan and bettor around the country is distracted by the the glamour and excitement surrounding the most high profile teams in the country, there are always sleepers to be found lurking in the shadows. Today, I want to shine the spotlight on those teams that I project to outpace their meager expectations by the widest margins in 2023.
1. Texas A&M (o/u 7.5)
Despite the epic face-plant that was the Texas A&M 2022 season, the Aggies are loaded with the requisite talent necessary to engineer an immediate turnaround in 2023. According to 247 Sports’ Blue Chip Ratio – a calculation of the percentage of former 4 and 5-star recruits on a team’s roster- A&M is the fourth most talented team in America entering 2023. As we saw last year, that talent alone is insufficient, but it’s still a hell of a place to start.
Quarterback was a revolving door of disaster for A&M last season. This year, however, former 5-star QB Connor Weigman, who was thrown into the fire last season, is poised to provide the type of talent and stability at the most important position on the field that the Aggies have sorely lacked each of the past two seasons. After a string of top-5 recruiting classes, Weigman also has an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions to work with. Sophomore Evan Stewart might be the most talented receiver in the SEC while Moose Muhammad III and Ainias Smith provide veteran playmaking ability to complement Stewart. 5-star Freshman running back Rueben Owens will be a more than adequate replacement for Devone Achane and don’t sleep on athletic tight end Donovan Green, either.
Defensively, the Aggies are stocked to the brim with former 4 and 5-star talent. Walter Nolan, the No.2 prospect in the 2022 class, is in-line to take a major step forward in his second year in the program, as is his former 5-star running mate LT Overton. The Aggies were already strong in the secondary but the addition of Tony Grimes – yet another former 5-star prospect – from the transfer portal will give the A&M defense even more of a shot in the arm.
So, the A&M roster is littered with talent, cool. It was last year, too. What makes this year different? Let’s not pretend we don’t know what the biggest issue was for A&M last season. It was Jimbo Fisher. There, I said it. Jimbo Fisher’s outsized ego got in the way and derailed the A&M season. His offense was cool and all back in 2013, but college football has evolved. Unfortunately for Aggie fans, Jimbo was too much of a narcissist to evolve with it. But fast forward a year and with more than a little push from A&M’s deep-pocketed boosters, Jimbo agreed to hire Bobby Petrino as his new offensive coordinator AND, more importantly, turn play-calling duties over to the former Arkansas head coach. And if there is anything we know about Bobby Petrino – other than his preference for fast women and faster bikes – it is that he can put up points on anyone. On top of the Petrino hire, a wave of offseason transfers has cleared the roster of many of the malcontents that poisoned the culture in College Station.
Armed with a wealth of talent, a new coordinator to fix the offensive issues that plagued the program a year ago, and an improved culture, Texas A&M is not only primed to hit the over in 2023, they have everything they need to make a run at an SEC Championship and a CFP bid.
2. Kentucky (o/u 6.5)
I have pulled a complete 180 on Kentucky entering the 2023 season. I faded Kentucky hard and filled my pockets with stacks of cash in the process last season. This year, however, I could not be more in on the Wildcats. This is a classic sell high, buy low situation. Riding high off of a 10-win 2021 season, Kentucky entered 2022 picked to finish second in the SEC East. But your boy wasn’t fooled for a second. I knew Will Levis was a fraud and I knew a program like Kentucky isn’t equipped to replace essentially every starter off of an elite offensive line in one season. So what does a committed gambler do in that situation? Easy. I went in HARD on the under and treated myself to a vacation to Cabo where I nearly drowned under a constant avalanche of Pina Coladas.
However, after the disappointment of 2022 soured everyone else on the Cats and the expectations have plummeted, NOW is the time to pounce and go heavy on the over. Mark Stoops replaced the highly overrated Will Levis with the consistently underrated Devin Leary whose 2021 season in which he threw 35 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions outpaced anything Levis ever did in college by miles. Kentucky also features a young, but dynamic receiving corps that got its feet wet last season and welcomes in Vanderbilt running back transfer Ray Davis who is a perfect fit for the physical, downhill running attack Kentucky likes to feature. Stoops was also able to lure offensive coordinator Liam Coen – who produced the best Kentucky offense in recent memory in 2021 – back to Lexington after a stint as the offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams. Add an improved offense to an always stout Mark Stoops defense, and you’ve got a recipe for a team that is going to blow past the depressed expectations that last year’s disappointing season established.
3. North Carolina State (6.5)
Admittedly, NC State lost a load of impact players off of last year’s team. However, the reunion of quarterback Brennan Armstrong and offensive coordinator Robert Anae is going to pay immediate dividends by jumpstarting an offense that bottomed-out in 2022. The last time the Ginger Ninja – a transfer from Virginia – and Anae worked together, the results were nothing short of spectacular with the Virginia offense averaging 516 yards and 35 points per game in 2021. That unique brand of offense that UVA featured in 2021 was – no exaggeration – the most fun and exciting offense I have ever watched. It was must-watch television. Head Coach Dave Doeren is hoping the pair will create their magic once again, and I am inclined to believe that they will.
With a pair of top-20 finishes, the Wolfpack have also quietly featured one of the most consistently good defenses in the country over the past two seasons. The Pack only returns 49% of its defensive production from a year ago, but several key players – including LB Payton Wilson and DL C.J. Clark – missed large chunks of last season due to injury but will return to the lineup this season. The NC State defense might not quite match up to the defenses of the past two seasons, but enough talent remains to stave off a drastic drop-off and an improved offense should more that compensate for any defensive decline.
The Wolfpack also have the great fortune of playing in the weakest Power 5 conference in America and the even greater fortune of not having to play Florida State, the odds-on favorite to win the league. Also, with games at Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, the road slate could not possibly be more favorable for the Pack and sets them up to be one of the bigger surprise teams in the nation in 2022.
4. Iowa State (5.5)
When looking for win totals to play, the key is to find teams that underperformed relative to their talent a year ago and depressed expectations in the process, but have the pieces to bounce back quickly the next season. Iowa State could not possibly fit that description more perfectly.
The 4-8 record from a year ago would seem to indicate that the Cyclones were a disaster, but not so fast, my friends. Any serious bettor does his homework and I, my friends, am a serious bettor. Last season was more a matter of bad luck for Iowa State than it was anything else. The Cyclones – a 4-win team – outgained their opponents by 1,010 yards last season which is nearly 1,500 yards better than the average 4-win team from a year ago. In fact, Iowa State’s yardage margin was greater than 8-win Notre Dame, 9-win and Big XII Champ Kansas State, and was only 50-yards shy of 10-win and ACC Champ Clemson. So how did they manage to lose 8 games despite that impressive yardage margin? Bad turnover luck. The Cyclones were 116th nationally in turnover margin last year. 7 of their 8 losses were by one score and 5 of their losses came by a combined 17 points. That type of bad luck almost never carries over from one season to the next.
It was not long ago that Matt Campbell was considered one of the hottest young coaches in college football. He is still that guy and armed with a talented quarterback who took his lumps as a first-time starter last year, I project Iowa State to turn their luck around in 2023 and fly past 6 wins.
5. Illinois (6.5)
It might be a stretch to apply the sleeper label to a team that was one of the biggest sleepers of last season, but that is exactly what I am going to do. The sleeper label applies because after losing star running back Chase Brown who was the nation’s third-leading rusher a year ago and quarterback Tommy Devito, expectations for Illinois have reverted back to their default position. For most college football fans, Illinois was a fun, cute story last year, but virtually nobody expects the Illini to do it again in 2023.
I, however, see through the uninformed narrative and find an Illinois team that has the roster to sneak up on the unsuspecting college football world once again. Brown, the undisputed heart of the last year’s Illini team, is gone, but when Brown missed time with injury last season, backup Reggie Love III flashed impressive playmaking ability and, while he won’t completely fill Brown’s shoes – the dude was a stud – he can give Illinois what they need at running back. Perhaps even more importantly, three starters and four rotation players from a strong offensive line return to pave the way for the Illinois ground game. Brett Bielema is a master at putting together elite offensive lines and 2023 will be no different.
The biggest reason for optimism for Illinois in 2023, however, is the arrival of Ole Miss quarterback transfer Luke Altmyer. While he failed to beat out Jaxon Dart in Oxford last season, Altmyer – a former 4-star prospect – is unquestionably the most talented quarterback not just in the Bielema era but in recent memory at Illinois. He is a capable and accurate passer who also adds another dimension to the Illini offense as a dual-threat option. The always dynamic Juice Williams – a magician with the ball in his hands – also returns to give the Illini a potent weapon in the pass game.
While Illinois did lose coordinator Ryan Walters who was hired as Purdue’s head coach, the Illini return 62% of the production from a top-3 defense in 2022. They they lose star corner Devon Witherspoon and several other contributors in the defensive backfield, but the Illini do return 3 of their top-4 pass rushers from a year ago. The schedule also sets up nice for Illinois as it misses both Michigan and Ohio State in cross-divisional play. The Illini only have to play four conference road games and have the good fortune to play in the Big 10 Western division, presenting them the opportunity to surprise once again in 2023 and perhaps even win the Big 10 West title that they let slip through their fingers last year.
Best of the Rest
Arkansas (6.5)
Minnesota (6.5)
Auburn (6.5)
Kansas (6)