Entering the 2022 college football season, Florida State – a once dominant force in the college football landscape – was in the midst of the program’s worst five-year run since the mid-1970’s, a period that pre-dated the Seminoles’ jump to the Atlantic Coast Conference. Coming off of 4-consecutive losing seasons, the Seminoles made the fateful decision in 1976 to turn their program over to a little-known coach by the name of Bobby Bowden. Bowden, the ultimate program-builder, would subsequently take a Florida State program that had only made seven bowl appearances in its history prior to his arrival to 28-straight bowls from 1982-2009. The Seminoles’ sustained run of elite success from 1987-2000 when they managed to string together 14-straight top-5 finishes is unmatched in the annals of college football history.
But all empires fall, and for Florida State the fall would be as dramatic as it was sudden.
As legendary as he was, Bowden’s twilight years represented a decline in the program’s national standing. However, Bowden’s successor, Jimbo Fisher, took the reigns of the program from its historic architect and promptly proceeded to return it to its former glory by reeling off six 10-win seasons in his first seven years including a BCS national championship in 2013. Fisher, however, flew too close to the sun, lost control of the program, and left it in shambles as he fled to the greener pastures and deeper pockets of College Station, Texas following the 2017 season. After a brief and disastrous Willie Taggert interlude, Florida State plucked Mike Norvell from the blues capital of the world and charged him with leading the once mighty Seminoles back to their rightful place among the college football elite.
Two seasons and more than a few calls for his scalp later, Norvell spearheaded a resurgence in Tallahassee in 2022, leading the Seminoles to their first 10-win season since 2016 and kickstarting an the 2023 FSU hype train that is now completely out of control. Now, as Florida State enters the 2023 season with the most returning production in the nation, expectations are at a fever pitch and nothing short of an ACC Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance will satiate the bloodlust of the Seminole faithful.
As the 2023 season rapidly approaches, the classic question that all recently resurgent programs must answer hangs in the air: Are the Seminoles for real? Or are the championship expectations that accompanied their 10-win 2022 campaign still a bit premature?
WIN TOTAL: 10 (over +110/under -130)
WHY THE NOLES WILL GO OVER
- The Florida State offense is going to leave a trail of carnage in its wake as it slices through ACC defenses this season. The Noles made a massive leap offensively last year and return 80% of their offensive production from a top-10 offense that closed the regular season scoring 40 or more points in four of its final five games.
- Not only do the Seminoles return a wealth of production, they return a third-year starter at quarterback in Jordan Travis who elected to return for a sixth college season coming off of a career year in 2022. Travis has always been a dynamic threat with his legs, but he took a tremendous step forward as a passer last season, more than doubling his previous career high in passing yards and accounting for more touchdowns than he did in his first four college seasons combined. Travis’ elevated play last season was the primary driving force behind FSU’s improvement from from 71st nationally in yards/play in 2021 to 7th nationally in 2022. He made better decisions with the ball, protected himself when he elected to run, and demonstrated enhanced downfield accuracy. Travis enters 2023 as a legitimate Heisman candidate.
- As good as Travis was last season, he can’t do it alone. Fortunately for him and Seminole fans everywhere, FSU will trot out one of the most dynamic receiving units in the country. After transferring from Arizona State prior to last season, Johnny Wilson established himself not only as Florida State’s top receiving threat, but as one of the more uniquely talented wide outs in America. The 6-foot-7, 235-pounder possesses an elite catch radius and showcased a habit of coming down with absurd catches in contested ball situations. After hitting the transfer jackpot last season with Wilson, the Seminoles tried their hand again this offseason bringing in Keon Coleman from Michigan State. Coleman – Michigan State’s leading receiver in 2022 – is a dynamic athlete who will join with Wilson to form one of the top receiver duos in the country.
- Talk about burying the lead, as good as the FSU pass game projects to be in 2023, it was the running game that was the engine of the Seminoles offense a year ago. The Noles featured a top-15 rushing offense last season and rushed for over 200 yards in each of their last seven regular season games. This season, FSU returns two of its three-headed running back monster last year, including leading rusher Trey Benson who might just prove to be the best running back in America in 2023. Add Jordan Travis and his ability to devastate defenses both with the designed QB-run game and scrambling to the mix and Florida State has all of the ingredients for one of the most potent running games in the nation. Combine that run game with an embarrassment of riches at WR and a Heisman contender at quarterback and you have the total offensive package.
- As good at the Seminole offense will be in 2023, their defense won’t trail far behind. The Seminoles ranked No.15 nationally in total defense a year ago and return 94% of their production from that side of the ball.
- The Seminoles also return the ACC’s second-leading sack-man from 2022 in Jared Verse. Verse, who transferred to FSU from Albany prior to last season, finished with 9 sacks and gives the Seminoles a potential game-changing force on defense.
WHY THE NOLES WILL GO UNDER
- While the FSU roster is loaded entering the 2023 season, the vast majority of those players were also on last year’s Seminole team, a team that lost to an 8-5 Wake Forest team at home and an NC State team that lost its starting QB mid-way through the second quarter and pulled out late one-score victories against Florida and Oklahoma, two teams that finished the season with losing records. When a team plays that inconsistently, it’s always risky to trust them to win all of the games they should win until they prove it. History tells us an inexplicable loss is somewhere on that schedule.
- Sure, the Noles beat LSU week one while the Tigers were still trying to figure things out in Brian Kelly’s first game as LSU’s head coach, but they only beat two teams with a winning record the rest of the way and those two teams, Louisville and Syracuse went a combined 15-11 last season. Not exactly inspired victories. Are the Seminoles really ready to beat LSU again and walk into Clemson and come away with a victory? LSU will be a different team than the one they faced to open the 2022 season and the Noles have not won at Clemson since pre-crab legs Jameis Winston was dropping dimes all over the field.
- Can Jordan Travis stay healthy? Travis did a much better job of protecting himself last season, but he has a history of injuries including missing multiple games in both 2020 and 2021. If Travis is forced to miss games due to injury, you can kiss the over goodbye.
- Johnny Wilson has all of the physical tools a receiver could dream of, but the dude just struggles to catch the ball. He had an outrageous 8% drop rate last season and many of those drops had a tendency to occur in the biggest moments. With his size, Wilson is essentially always open, but that doesn’t matter if you can’t catch the ball when it comes your way.
- The final numbers for the FSU defense represented a significant jump from 2021, but the Noles still struggled to stop the run against the more capable rushing attacks they faced. They gave up over 250 yards on the ground to both Florida and Oklahoma to close out the season and surrendered more than 160 rushing yards on four other occasions. Are we just assuming they will fix that this year with the same players that got gashed last year? What I do know is that elite, 11-win teams do not get steamrolled on the ground like that.
PREDICTION
With practically the entire roster returning from a 10-win team, including impact players at all of the most important positions, you better damn well believe that Florida State is for real in 2023. Saying that, I will admit that getting to 11-wins in the regular season is one hell of a hurdle to get over (cough…Tennessee…cough). But playing in the weakest Power 5 conference helps matters as does the fact that the Noles will only face three teams – LSU, Clemson, and Miami – in the regular season that can come close to matching their overall talent level and Miami is a train-wreck right now so they don’t count. I am still concerned that FSU has the potential to lay an egg against an inferior team as they have made a habit of doing the past five seasons, but I just can’t see that happening more than once. I think the Noles are capable of beating both LSU and Clemson, but to be on the safe side I will project them to at least split with the Bayou Bengals and the other Tigers, which means even if they do pull a Florida State and lose a game they have no business losing, they still hit 10 wins and give us the push. With their recent history, I can’t go higher than a 6 on my confidence meter, making this only a 5-unit play for me. However, the +110 odds are too enticing to pass up, so head over to the Barstool Sportsbook and lay down a comfortable amount of cash on FSU to go over 10-wins and thank me later.